Title: Estimation of a Censored Demand System in Stratified Sampling: An Analysis of Mexican Meat Demand at the Table Cut Level.

Authors: Lopez, Jose; Malaga, Jaime

Abstract: Evidence of meat trade in the form of table cuts suggests that consumer preferences and tastes vary across meat cuts. Unlike previous studies, this paper estimates demand elasticities at the table cut level from a Mexican survey of household incomes and expenditures, which is a stratified sample. The study uses the two-step estimation of a censored demand system proposed by Shonkwiler and Yen (1999) but incorporates stratification variables into the estimation procedure. Parameter estimates are reported and its standard errors are approximated by using the bootstrap procedure.

Title: An Examination of the Relationship between Food Prices and Government Monetary Policies in Iran

Authors: Shahnoushi, Naser; Henneberry, Shida; Manssori, Hooman

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between food prices and monetary policy variables, using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach applied to annual data from 1976 to 2006. Results indicate that food prices in Iran have a long-run and short-run equilibrium granger causality relationship with money supply. More specifically, monetary policy reforms are shown to have a significant impact on food prices and domestic agricultural production. These policies influence consumption patterns and have serious implications for poverty reduction, food security issues, and agricultural growth in Iran.

Title: An Examination of the Relationship between Food Prices and Government Monetary Policies in Iran

Authors: Shahnoushi, Naser; Henneberry, Shida; Manssori, Hooman

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between food prices and monetary policy variables, using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach applied to annual data from 1976 to 2006. Results indicate that food prices in Iran have a long-run and short-run equilibrium granger causality relationship with money supply. More specifically, monetary policy reforms are shown to have a significant impact on food prices and domestic agricultural production. These policies influence consumption patterns and have serious implications for poverty reduction, food security issues, and agricultural growth in Iran.

Title: Employment Growth in the Rural South: Do sectors matter?

Authors: Bukenya, James

Abstract: The paper contributes to the understanding of the role of economic sectors in employment growth by examining the extent to which sectoral employment influence employment development in the rural southeast United States over the period 1970 through 2007. The analysis employs two specifications of OLS regression to understand the role of economic sectors in employment growth processes. The first specification (number of jobs) explained approximately 36 percent of the variability in employment growth while the second specification (number of enterprises) explained roughly 43 percent of the variability over the studied period. Overall, the results suggest that although the share and the social role of agriculture are shrinking in almost all rural areas, agriculture is still an important sector in rural employment growth.

Title: Farm Supply Cooperatives: Specialized Inputs, Exchange Arrangements, and Economic Coordination

Authors: Haydu, John J.; Staatz, John M.

Abstract: Some critics of the cooperative farm supply system point to an erosion of member loyalty and suggest that it indicates that farm supply cooperatives are not currently meeting the needs of their farmer-members. This paper discusses the commitment problem within a transaction-cost-economics framework that analyzes the effects of agricultural specialization on the farm input industry. The analysis shows that: (1) despite complaints by many cooperative managers, farmers are behaving rationally and efficiently in their purchasing practices of specialized inputs, and (2) the cooperative system has responded well by instituting a unique exchange mechanism at the upstream end of the input system.

Title: Evolution of Cooperative Thought, Theory, and Purpose

Authors: Torgerson, Randall E.; Reynolds, Bruce J.; Gray, Thomas W.

Abstract: The evolution of agricultural cooperative thought, theory, and purpose in the United States is reviewed from the standpoint of the reemergence of interest in how cooperatives can provide some of the security and benefits that might be lost with gradual phasing out of federal government farm support programs. By accomplishing group action for self-help, the early development of cooperatives drew considerable attention from economists, social theorists, and politicians. Alternative schools of cooperative thought developed, but most proponents of cooperatives regarded them as having enormous potential to provide a public service role in building a more economically stable and democratic society This paper also surveys how cooperative theory was developed more rigorously in the post-WWII period. It has provided better analytical tools for understanding how and why cooperatives have changed in response to technological and economic developments, as well as to social trends, like individualism. Given the new perspectives on cooperative theory and the scope of changes in how cooperatives operate and are structured, cooperatives have even greater potential for coordinating self-help actions, but this potential needs the support of cooperative education services.

Title: AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF THE IMPORT DEMAND MODEL AND WELFARE EFFECTS: THE CASE OF RICE IMPORTING COUNTRIES

Authors: Kang, Hyunsoo; Kennedy, P. Lynn; Hilbun, Brian

Abstract: This analysis presents the determination of an import demand function for the world rice market using annual data from 1994 to 2007. In the specification and analysis of a world rice market import demand function, Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Instrumental Variables (IV) with Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methods have been used. Social welfare effects have been obtained using consumer surplus and compensated variation for the top four rice importing countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia). Empirical results suggest that economic growth, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and importing countries’ population positively affect national income, thus, positively affecting rice consumption. Oil price has a strong effect on the domestic rice prices in importing countries. This paper also estimates the social effects arising from increased rice export prices and examines how consumer surplus is affected in major rice importing countries.

Title: THE RELATIONSHIPS OF TRADE, ECONOMIC GRWOTH, AND MARKET POWER: THE CASE OF RICE EXPORTING

Authors: Kang, Hyunsoo; Kennedy, P. Lynn; Hilbun, Brian

Abstract: This paper aims to (1) analyze the relationship between rice exports and economic growth for the world’s top four exporting countries (Thailand, Vietnam, India, and the U.S) and (2) seek to determine to what extent market power affects a country’s economic growth. The main objective of this paper is to determine to what extent economic growth impacts a country’s rice exports as well as to what extent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) impacts a country’s ability to export rice. This analysis also examines the impact of market power on economic growth. On the basis of these results, we examine the existence of market power in the international rice market with respect to rice supply, and moreover, propose that there is a bi-directional causality between the international rice trade and economic growth for major rice exporting countries.

Title: STRUCTURE AND CONDUCT OF THE WORLD RICE MARKET

Authors: Kang, Hyunsoo; Kennedy, P. Lynn; Hilbun, Brian

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the world rice market through a Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) framework utilizing annual data from 1970 to 2007. Since World War Two, the world rice market has been very unstable, with rice prices experiencing volatile swings in both rice price and rice availability. Therefore, a SCP framework can provide crucial insight into the world rice market for policy makers. Also, this paper describes the effects of total production, export rice price, and real exchange rate for exporting countries on total export volume from an export supply model standpoint. On the basis of these results, it is evident that market power exists in the international rice market with respect to supply elasticity and an exporting country’s currency exchange rate greatly determines that country’s competitiveness as a net rice exporter relative to other rice producers.

Title: Enhancing Farm Profitability through Portfolio Analysis: The Case of Spatial Rice Variety Selection.

Authors: Nalley, Lanier; Barkley, Andrew; Brad, Watkins; Hignight, Jeffrey

Abstract: The objectives of this paper is to use the large depth of existing literature on portfolio theory and apply it to rice varietal selection for 6 counties in the Arkansas Delta. Results based on 1999-2006 data suggests that combining available varieties using portfolio theory could have increased profits from 3 to 26% (dependent on location) in the Arkansas Delta. The major implication of this research is that data and statistical tools are available to improve the choice of rice varieties to plant each year in specific locations within Arkansas. Specifically, there are large potential gains from combining varieties that are characterized by inverse yield responses to growing conditions such as drought, pest infestation, or the presence of a specific disease.

Title: The Fruit and Vegetable Market News Portal: From Market Reports to Market Information (PowerPoint)

Authors: Long, Terry

Title: THE IMPACT OF PETROLEUM PRICES ON VEGETABLE OILS PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION TESTS

Authors: Awad Abdel Hameed, Amna; Mohamed Arshad, Fatimah

Abstract: A widespread and commonly shared concern about food price inflation is now a worry that has seldom been felt in the world before, and is fuelling debates about the present and future situation of global food commodity prices. Increasing petroleum prices are suggested to be one of the factors that contributed to the rise in agricultural commodity prices. Vegetable oils are among the commodities that have experienced high prices growth. This study seeks to investigate the long-term relationship between the prices of petroleum and vegetable oils prices represented by palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils prices. To that end, the bivariate cointegration approach using Engle-Granger two-stage estimation procedure is applied. The study utilises monthly data over the period of January 1983 through March 2008. The results provide a strong evidence of long-run equilibrium relation between the two products prices. The estimates of the error correction models reveal a unidirectional long-run causality flowing from petroleum to each of the vegetable oils prices under study.

Notes: This paper investigate the long-term relationship between the petroleum and vegetable oils prices represented by palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oils prices. To that end, the bivariate cointegration approach using Engle-Granger two-stage estimation procedure is applied. The study utilises monthly data over the period of January 1983 through March 2008. The results provide a strong evidence of long-run equilibrium relation between the two products prices. The estimates of the error correction models reveal a unidirectional long-run causality flowing from petroleum to each of the vegetable oils prices under study.

Title: The Economics of Collective Brands

Authors: Fishman, Arthur; Finkelshtain, Israel; Simhon, Avi; Yacouel, Nira

Title: Revisiting Malthus in Light of Agricultural Biotechnology

Authors: Mock, J.N.; Epperson, J.E.

Abstract: While the population of the world is continually growing, there are doubts that the food supply will be sufficient to keep pace. Although 14% of the world is undernourished today, an exponentially increasing population could be catastrophic if agricultural production lags too far behind. This paper attempts to forecast agricultural yield given the recent advent of genetically modified crops as a means to see whether this technology has the potential to help supply the world with food in the future. Through regression, a model was developed to make predictions of corn yields as a case study on how biotechnology might affect future agricultural production.

Title: U.S. Market Potential For Dried Distillers Grain With Solubles

Authors: Dooley, Frank J.

Abstract: Prior research presumes that the U.S. livestock feed demand for dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) can accommodate the rapid growth in DDGS production. The objective of this work is to reexamine the market potential for DDGS by considering factors that limit the adoption rate of DDGS. An estimate of DDGS market size requires information about DDGS inclusion rates, animal populations, and adoption rates. The rapid expansion of the ethanol industry will saturate the dairy and hog markets for DDGS by the end of 2009, while the beef and poultry use must triple to consume all available product. One must be circumspect of these forecasts for three reasons. First, the supply of DDGS is contingent on ethanol production. If the downturn in ethanol profitability spreads, less DDGS may be available to absorb. Second, in the short run, farms capable of consuming DDGS are not likely to shift, and thus animal populations are relatively fixed. However, the DDGS inclusion rates will most likely increase from current practices. Yet it is hard to imagine the market penetration rate will reach 100 percent for any class of livestock. Finally, export markets may also consume more DDGS than expected, reducing the pressure to expand US consumption. Thus, producers and consumer of DDGS would be well advised to pay careful attention to market developments as the US DDGS continues to grow.

Title: Market Analysis for Dried Distillers Grain in Indiana

Authors: Dooley, Frank J.

Abstract: The rapid expansion of the ethanol industry in Indiana has saturated the local market for the principal co-product, distillers grains with solubles (DDGS). In the near term, Indiana’s livestock industry can be expected to consume up to 895,000 tons of DDGS per year. But given production of 2.7 million tons, Indiana’s ethanol producers will rely on railroads and barges to ship excess production to out-of-state destinations. Livestock producers will have a ready access to DDGS across the state.

Title: Male Income, Female Income, and Household Income Inequality in Israel: A Decomposition Analysis

Authors: Kimhi, Ayal

Title: IMMIGRANT ASSIMILATION: DO NEIGHBORHOODS MATTER?

Authors: Duncan, Natasha T.; Waldorf, Brigitte S.

Abstract: The United States provides a path to citizenship for its newcomers. Unlike other immigration countries, however, the United States does not have policies that ease assimilation or directly promote naturalization such as easily accessible and widely advertised language and civic instruction courses. Immigrants are by and large left on their own when facing legal and financial barriers or seeking instruction to pass the citizenship test. Not surprisingly, thus, we find that immigrants’ attributes such as educational attainment, English language proficiency, and income affect naturalization rates. This paper analyzes whether naturalization rates are also affected by neighborhood characteristics and informal networks for assistance and information. Towards that end, we estimate a binary model of immigrants’ citizenship status specifying the size of the immigrant enclave and its level of assimilation as key explanatory variables. The study uses 2005 ACS data, and focuses on immigrants from the Caribbean islands in the New York area. The results suggest that who they are and where they live has substantial impacts on immigrants’ propensities to have acquired US citizenship. Citizenship is unlikely for recent arrivals, those who do not speak English well, are poorly educated, and have a low income. Moreover, living in a neighborhood with a well assimilated immigrant enclave enhances the chance of acquiring US citizenship. This effect is stronger for highly educated than for poorly educated immigrants and thus misses the more vulnerable segments of the immigrant population.

Title: Recent Changes in Crop Production Costs and Implications for Regional Competitiveness

Authors: Olson, Kent D.; Zakharova, Lena

Abstract: Rapid increases in input prices have cast a large shadow over the enthusiasm created by higher product prices. In this paper we forecast the trends in input prices and use these trends to forecast production costs for corn, soybeans, and wheat at the national level, and for regions within the U.S. Although the Heartland is forecast to maintain its competitive edge in corn costs, the Northern Great Plains and Prairie Gateway regions are forecast to increase their competitive advantage due to using less fertilizer and chemicals on average which results in relative costs decreasing for these regions. For soybeans, the Heartland is forecast to maintain its competitive edge although the Eastern Uplands region was forecast to increase its competitive advantage due to using less fertilizer and chemicals. With wheat, the Prairie Gateway region was forecast to have the best improvement in relative costs, while the Northern Great Plains loses some competitive edge. However, since individual farms have different costs due to physical conditions and timing of input purchases, and crop prices are fluctuating, actual profit levels are hard to predict.